March 4, Kathmandu. By Kushal Basnet
The ruling coalition in Nepal changed on Monday. With Maoist chair Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’ continuing as the Prime Minister, the CPN (UML) ousted the Nepali Congress to join the government. Janata Samajwadi Party (JSP) and the upstart Rashtriya Swatantra Party (JSP) have accompanied the two major communist parties in forming the new government.
On the eve of the 2017 general elections, the CPN (Maoist Centre) and the CPN (UML) allied. After securing a two-thirds majority in the House of Representatives, the two parties merged with UML chair KP Sharma Oli as the Prime Minister. Amid growing pressures from the Maoist faction to step down, Oli dissolved the House twice. While Maoists took to the streets, the Supreme Court not only reinstated the dissolved House but also split the united communist party. Congress, Maoists, and CPN (Unified Socialists)–a breakaway party from UML–dubbed Oli and UML ‘regressive’ and ‘anti-constitutional’ for the dissolution of parliament, paving the way for a new coalition government.
The Congress-Maoists coalition continued in the 2023 general elections with the parties backing each other in the constituencies. Maoists then briefly indulged with UML to form a new government following the election but returned to join hands with Congress once again.
Now Maoist supremo Prachanda has forgiven Oli for his ‘regression’, calling the newfound cooperation the beginning of a ‘communist reunion.’ The new coalition came out as a surprise given the convincing ‘pro-constitution’ value the older coalition stood upon. The explanations of the change in coalition, however, suggest that it was more than a surprise.
Political observers have pointed out the desire to stay in power as a motivator for the new coalition.
“Prachanda would need to abandon his Prime Ministership in another year or so if the coalition between Congress and Maoists had to continue,” said Bhim Bhurtel, an expert in domestic and international politics. “On the other side, Oli would also benefit from a place in government. RSP probably joined because that would provide some immunity to Rabi Lamichhane, the RSP president, who has been facing attacks from many fronts.”
Saurav Dahal, a political analyst, finds that the change in the coalition has implications for the next general elections.
“The clash between former Finance Minister Prakash Sharan Mahat and PM Prachanda could have triggered the change in coalition,” Dahal explained. “However, discussions within Congress about not doing a pre-election coalition ever made it necessary for the Maoist Centre to contemplate its position in the next election. Maoists cannot maintain their size in the parliament without a electoral coalition.”
“Maoists expected full support from Congress on the new bill on transitional justice. But things did not play out as smoothly,” he added.
A peace agreement, signed in 2006, ended the Maoist war, setting up the Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC) and the Commission of Inquiry on Enforced Disappeared Persons (CIEDP) to investigate the war crimes from both sides–the Maoist Army and the government security forces. Enforced Disappearances Enquiry, Truth and Reconciliation Commission Act, 2014 established the two commissions, but the law did not empower the commissions enough to solve the wartime issues. In 2015, the Supreme Court directed the government to amend the bill in line with international standards, including classifying violence as serious and non-serious and worthy and unworthy of amnesty, depending on their severity.
The former coalition government, led by PM Dahal, registered a bill to amend the 2014 Act, often referred to as the Transitional Justice Bill, in the House of Representatives in March.
In early January, PM Prachanda held dialogues with the then-opposition CPN (UML) on the possibility of getting the Transitional Justice Bill approved through the parliament. UML in return would get some National Assembly seats. However, the trade-off did not happen. As a result, the Maoist Centre became the largest party in the assembly as UML dropped from first to third. UML has apparently forgotten the defeat. In addition, parliamentary discussions have brought the three major parties closer in transitional justice, but the impact of the change of sides on the transitional justice process is yet to be seen.