Experts, stakeholders, and the common people were anticipating a ‘food crisis’ in Nepal for this year. Rice, a derivative of paddy, is a staple food item in Nepali kitchens, and the official statements earlier projected a plunge in its supply.
On top of the expected drop in production, neighboring India announced a tightening of rice exports in July following a projection of a drop in global rice production because of dry weather. The food crisis claim would be further strengthened by the fact that Nepal imported about 1.4 million metric tonnes of rice from India last year, as reported by the Indian Government.
While reporting to the Industry, Commerce, Labour and Consumer Interest Committee of the House of Representatives last week, a government official even went on to assert that the paddy production would fall by 50 percent.
Narayan Prasad Duwadi, secretary at Ministry of Industry, Commerce, and Supplies (MoICS), reported to the house committee that the government was aware of a probable ‘food crisis’ because of the anticipated drop in paddy production.
‘Information from the Agriculture Ministry and other sources show that the paddy production will drop by 50 percent. We are yet to receive data from eastern Terai,’ he said. ‘We may have to make paddy purchases to boost our rice storage.’
The fear of famine also seems to have stemmed from the various sets of data reported by different government agencies before and during Monsoon, the rice plantation season which spans from mid-June to late September.
The Meteorological Forecasting Division at the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology had forecasted a few days’ delay in the entry of Monsoon clouds from the Bay of Bengal to Nepal, but the delay happened just a day. Likewise, there were forecasts of above-average temperature and below-average rainfall during the season. Conventionally, a timely Monsoon would mean a healthy production of paddy.
The government had also anticipated a sharp plunge in rice plantations. The Department of Agriculture had reported a significant drop in rice plantations across Nepal. Only 68 percent of anticipated rice planting was completed by the third week of July compared to 88 percent plantation by the same time in the previous year, according to the department reports.
While fear of famine dominated the public discourse in Nepal, the shocking statement by Secretary Duwadi created a ripple in Nepal, with arguments for and against his statements. But, the hyperbole as well as the presiding fear of famine have been discarded by a more recent report from the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development (MoALD).
Releasing its preliminary estimations, MoALD claimed a 4.33 percent increase in year-on-year paddy production, which would be the record highest. The total paddy production increased from 5.48 million metric tonnes last year to 5.72 million metric tonnes this year.
Kosi Province is the largest producer of rice followed by Madhesh Province. The eastern Terai, the data from which had not informed the Secretary’s statement, lies in Kosi Province.
In its statement, the MoALD has cited the availability and use of advanced seeds, control of the impact of diseases and pests, better availability of fertilizers, and the use of agricultural tools and technology as the reasons behind the increase in production despite a weak monsoon.
‘Madhesh Province saw a decrease in the production and productivity of paddy compared to previous years because the rainfall was low in the province this year,’ the statement reads.
Despite the increase in paddy production, the challenges to the major food crops of Nepal have not resided. According to MoALD, the total area of paddy plantations has decreased by 8,800 hectares in a single year.
The statistics are based on preliminary reports from agriculture ministries of the seven provinces and the area of paddy plantations in the fields of Terai as depicted in satellite images collected by the International Center for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD).
Despite the reported increase in production, obstructions to rice import from India persist. Easing the restrictions, India allowed the export of 95,000 tons of rice to Nepal in October. However, further developments in the rice trade have not come forward.